How to tell who is winning a test match
I will start with a summary of how to tell who is winning a test match: Batting first, the team should generally score around 250-300 for the match to be even. A score of under 250 means that the team batting first is losing, while a score of over 300 means that they are winning.
In any innings of any match, whatever the score is when they lose their 4th wicket, on average you can double that to get the team total for that innings.
For wickets 1-4, a score of 35 per partnership is average in the first innings. For wickets 5-10, a score of 25 per partnership is average in the first innings.
In the second innings of the match, the team batting second will require a lead of 50-100 in order for the match to be even. A lead of less than 50, or a deficit, means that they are losing, while a lead of over 100 means that they are winning.
In the third innings of the match, if the team gets a lead with 3 wickets lost, the match is even.
In the third innings of the match, a target of 200 means that the match is even.
In the fourth innings, they should aim to get to half of the target with 4 wickets lost in order for the match to be even, and divide by 4 for each wicket lost.
In all of the above ideas, I am talking about in order for the match to be even. If you want to be winning, you will aim for more than this. Of course, teams have lost while posting 400 or 500 in the first innings. Teams batting second have had 200 run leads and still lost. And teams batting second with deficits have still won. Teams have won while defending 120. But I am talking about averages, rough guides for how to determine who is winning.
In ODIs, it is a lot simpler. Consider the following suggestions:
A par score will depend on the pitch, conditions and history at the ground, as well as the teams and make up. This will usually be guessed by the commentators before the start of the match. You can generally guess what is going to be a good score if watching it, either on TV, on radio or live. Par scores could be anywhere from 200-350.
In the first innings, the score after 30 overs can generally be doubled in order to find the team total after 50 overs.
Whatever the score is at the fall of the 4th wicket can be doubled (as with tests) – if this is lower than double the score after 30 overs, then the team is unlikely to be able to double their score.
If a team utilises their batting power play well, they can add another 20 runs to the team’s total.
When batting second, Duckworth-Lewis calculations can be used to determine who is winning.
If they have more runs and the same or less wickets lost after the same number of overs, the team batting second is winning.
So long as they don’t get bowled out or are left with weak hitters, the team batting second has it easier and can generally catch up even if slightly behind on the comparison.
Teams batting second generally only lose if they are bowled out, or are down to their weak hitters.
T20s are even simpler still:
The par score for T20s at all levels all over the world is 160. If a team batting first scores 160, they are an even chance of winning or losing. This does not vary match from ground to ground, country to country, team to team. Get more than 160 batting first and you generally win – less and you generally lose.
Batting first, a score of 8 runs per over in the first 6 overs, 6 per over in the next 6, 8 per over in the next 4, and 11 per over in the final 4 will be on track for a par score of 160. More than that and they are winning – less than that and they are losing.
Wickets really don’t matter, so long as they don’t lose all their wickets or get down to their weak hitters (if they have any – many T20 teams have all 11 players capable of hitting). Generally speaking, the aim is to last 2 overs per wicket. Wickets falling more often than that can be a worry but teams aren’t often bowled out in T20s.
Whatever the total is, the team batting second should aim to keep the run rate. If they are ahead of the run rate, they are winning – behind it they are losing – even slightly behind.
Like in an ODI, teams batting second can catch up but it is more difficult once wickets have fallen and they are behind on the run rate.
I could bore you with my reasoning and calculations with this but at the end of the day those that disagree will try to say I am wrong anyway. So just accept this – or don’t – or alter it to suit your needs – or come up with your own calculations.
The aim of this is to help people to understand who is winning in an international match, especially in a test match.
For reference, I refer to the recently concluded Australia vs India test match at the MCG:
Batting first, Australia started well but went slightly behind when Marsh was out for a first ball duck, but then got to 205 by the fall of the 4th wicket and were well on top. Even with India’s fightback to see Australia all out for 333, this was a good first innings total and Australia were well on top. India were almost back to parity after 3 quick wickets but were never on top.
India were close to parity for much of their innings as they reached 2-214 but even then they were looking at a 100 run first innings lead, which would have only made the match even. The big collapse meant that Australia had a lead, which meant that Australia were even further on top than at the end of their innings.
In Australia’s 3rd innings, they lost quick wickets but with a first innings lead they could afford to do that and still be on top. They ultimately set a target of well over 200 – 292 in fact – and, like throughout the rest of the match, remained well on top. Australia were never a long way ahead and India kept getting back to almost even before Australia got on top again. This is often described as “keeping them at arm’s length”.
In India’s 4th and final innings, they were well behind from the start and when the 4th wicket fell for 68 they were a long way behind the target of 4 for 146 and while there was some kind of a fightback they were falling in a heap.
The end result was a win to Australia by just 122 runs, a relatively small margin really, but India were perhaps only twice ahead in the match – briefly after Marsh was out first ball in the first innings and then in India’s first innings (the second innings overall) when they were 2/214 chasing 333 with Tendulkar and Laxman batting. Australia were never too far on top but they were on top the whole match long, barring those two brief patches.
Thus at any point in the match you could have answered the question “who is winning?” with a degree of certainty.
In the second test, which is in progress, you can also follow the same basic guidelines.
India were well behind in their first innings as they got to 4/59, having lost regular wickets up to that point. While they did fight back somewhat, they never got up to parity and their total of 191 is well below the par score of 250-300 and India were losing.
India did look like getting ahead in Australia’s first innings (the third overall) but Australia only needed to get to 4/120 for the game to be evenly poised. Currently they are 3/116 so, short of losing a wicket very quickly tomorrow, Australia are on top – but not by a very big margin.
Australia will want 241-291 (or roughly 250-300, rounded up) to be par. This will not put Australia ahead, it will just make the match even. If Australia want to be in a commanding position, they will want a total of 400 or more. Yet if Australia manage only 200, then they will be losing – but not by much. If they have a deficit – any deficit at all – they will be losing by a lot.
Michael Clarke
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