The 2025 PGA Tour rolls on, and this week, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson takes center stage at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. As golfers like Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, and Sungjae Im head to the fairways, the excitement is building around one of the season’s most anticipated tournaments. With birdies in abundance and a course that rewards both long drives and precise iron play, here’s everything you need to know about the CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds and the top betting picks for this week.
The Perfect Storm for Big Wins at TPC Craig Ranch
As we approach the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, there’s a key trend that stands out: TPC Craig Ranch has been a course where long shots have thrived. Since its inclusion in the PGA Tour calendar in 2021, the tournament has seen its fair share of surprising results, and this year could be no different. With birdie opportunities galore, the field will likely see some volatility. That makes this the perfect week to look beyond the obvious favorites and target players who excel in easy scoring conditions, as well as those who can make the most of the course’s long par-5s and forgiving landing areas.
Understanding the Betting Strategy
When it comes to betting this week, it’s essential to have a strategic approach. While Scottie Scheffler is undeniably a favorite, with his home-state advantage and stellar track record, his current price tag may not offer the best value. Instead, I’ve opted for a diverse card this week—focusing on players who excel on courses with easy scoring conditions, elite approach play, and the ability to go low with the putter. With a mix of veterans and rising stars, here are my top picks for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Outright Betting Picks: Value in the Field
Stephan Jaeger (+4500)
While Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite, one name that stands out for his potential to upset is Stephan Jaeger. The 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open champion, Jaeger has already proven he can hold off a player like Scheffler, having edged him out by a stroke in a thrilling finish. TPC Craig Ranch’s long-iron approach and birdie-friendly layout suit Jaeger’s game perfectly. Plus, with a top-20 finish in both of his previous appearances here, Jaeger is poised to contend again this week. At odds of +4500, he offers great value for those looking for an underdog with a legitimate shot.
Rasmus Højgaard (+5000)
Next on my list is Rasmus Højgaard. The Danish golfer has five career wins on the DP World Tour and has been trending upward on the PGA Tour. With a solid combination of distance and iron play, he’s well-suited for TPC Craig Ranch, where long drives and precision are crucial. Fresh off a runner-up finish at the Zurich Classic, Højgaard enters the tournament with confidence and could very well make his mark in his CJ Cup Byron Nelson debut.
Jake Knapp (+5500)
Don’t sleep on Jake Knapp. The 2024 Mexico Open champion has been one of the most consistent players of late, with three top-12 finishes in his last six starts. He’s a fantastic value at +5500, as his distance off the tee and solid approach play should give him a significant edge at TPC Craig Ranch. His eighth-place finish in his CJ Cup debut further solidifies his potential to perform well again this week.
More Top Picks: Talented Contenders at Great Odds
Ryan Gerard (+6000)
One player to keep an eye on this week is Ryan Gerard. Though he may not fit the typical “bomber” mold, Gerard’s game is well-suited for the easy scoring conditions at TPC Craig Ranch. With three top-12 finishes in his last four starts, including a solid T12 finish at the Zurich Classic, Gerard is in excellent form. Given his ability to go low on courses like this, he’s a solid bet at odds of +6000.
Nicolai Højgaard (+6500)
While Rasmus might be the more in-form Højgaard brother, Nicolai Højgaard has the long-term potential to shine at TPC Craig Ranch. Both brothers have similar profiles, but Nicolai has shown flashes of brilliance in his career and could be due for a breakout performance. At +6500, he offers strong value for those looking for an intriguing longshot.
Harry Hall (+8000)
I’m always drawn to Harry Hall when the conditions are right for birdie-fests, and TPC Craig Ranch fits his game to a tee. Hall’s ability to rattle off birdie streaks, particularly in easy conditions, makes him a strong candidate at odds of +8000. After capturing his first career PGA Tour win in the 2024 ISCO Championship, Hall has been playing some of the best golf of his career. Expect him to be in the mix this week.
First Round Leader (FRL) Bets: Spotting the Early Stars
Stephan Jaeger (+5500)
Jaeger’s combination of driving distance and long-iron play makes him a strong candidate for an early lead. With his ability to go low and score quickly, he’s one of my top picks for the First Round Leader market at +5500. Expect him to be aggressive from the start and capitalize on the birdie opportunities available.
Jake Knapp (+6000)
Another player with a knack for going low is Jake Knapp. His record-setting round at PGA National earlier this season shows that he has the potential to set the course on fire in the opening round. At +6000, Knapp represents great value to be the first-round leader, especially with his strong driving and approach game.
Seamus Power (+7000)
Though he didn’t make it onto my outright card, Seamus Power deserves a mention for First Round Leader. A known birdie-maker, Power has shown a knack for fast starts at TPC Craig Ranch, finishing top-20 in all three of his appearances. At +7000, Power offers a solid risk-reward proposition to lead after Day 1.
Harry Hall (+7500)
One of my FRL fixtures in weeks where Aaron Rai is unavailable, Harry Hall knows how to catch fire on the greens in easy conditions. He’s rounding into form this week, with a game that sets up well to score at TPC Craig Ranch.
Hayden Springer (+11000)
As a player with the best combination of Birdie-or-Better and Par-5 scoring metrics, Springer is my favorite First Round Leader value this week.
One-and-Done Picks: Navigating the Field
For your One-and-Done (OAD) pick, I’m leaning towards Stephan Jaeger. While many will likely use Scottie Scheffler in OAD, this might not be the week to do so. Jaeger’s previous win in Texas, coupled with his skill set that matches TPC Craig Ranch, makes him a sensible choice. If not Jaeger, Jordan Spieth and Rasmus Højgaard are also strong alternatives for your OAD strategy.
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