The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set to take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs, and all eyes are on the field of contenders vying for the iconic roses. With a mix of experienced dirt runners and a couple of bold newcomers, it’s shaping up to be an exciting race. Among the intriguing storylines this year are the surprising picks from Santa Anita-based racing expert Michelle Yu, whose expertise has consistently delivered successful predictions in past years. From longshots to the favorites, here’s everything you need to know about the horses, odds, and post positions for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Breaking Down the Contenders: Big Names, Bigger Surprises
When it comes to Kentucky Derby predictions, most people gravitate towards the biggest names, and this year, Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1), and Sandman (6-1) are among the top favorites. However, there are also some compelling surprises making waves in the odds and predictions.
One surprise in Yu’s 2025 Kentucky Derby picks is her total fade of Sandman. Despite his victory in the Arkansas Derby and being one of the top favorites, Yu warns that Sandman’s chances might be more limited than most people think. “Sandman is in a tricky position,” Yu said. “His pedigree doesn’t suggest he can handle the longer distance, and there are also concerns about his connections. Trainer Mark Casse has the most Kentucky Derby starters (10) without an in-the-money finish, and jockey Jose Ortiz has struggled with his Kentucky Derby rides.” With all these factors considered, Yu advises against backing Sandman despite his strong odds.
Meanwhile, Sovereignty (5-1), another favorite, stands a better chance of making it to the front, but like all horses, there are still many unknowns as they transition to the big stage at Churchill Downs.
Rising Stars: The Longshots Who Could Shock the Field
As always, the Kentucky Derby is a stage for surprises. This year, Yu is high on Luxor Cafe, a 15-1 longshot who has been showing promise. “Luxor Cafe has a strong pedigree, being sired by the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah,” Yu said. “He dominated the Fukuryu Stakes in March, and his stalking running style could be perfect for the fast-paced Kentucky Derby.” Japanese horses have been increasingly competitive in recent years, and Luxor Cafe’s winning streak of four races certainly makes him a contender.
Yu is also eyeing Flying Mohawk and Final Gambit—two 30-1 longshots who will be making their debut on dirt after competing on turf or synthetic surfaces. The transition to dirt is a big question mark, but there’s always room for a dark horse to make their mark on Derby day.
Kentucky Derby Field Breakdown: Post Positions and Odds
The Kentucky Derby is known for its large field, and this year is no different, with 21 horses slated to compete. Here’s a quick look at the post positions and their corresponding odds:
- 1. Citizen Bull – 20-1
- 2. Neoequos – 30-1
- 3. Final Gambit – 30-1
- 4. Rodriguez – 12-1 (Scratched)
- 5. American Promise – 30-1
- 6. Admire Daytona – 30-1
- 7. Luxor Cafe – 15-1
- 8. Journalism – 3-1
- 9. Burnham Square – 12-1
- 10. Grande – 20-1 (Scratched)
- 11. Flying Mohawk – 30-1
- 12. East Avenue – 20-1
- 13. Publisher – 20-1
- 14. Tiztastic – 20-1
- 15. Render Judgment – 30-1
- 16. Coal Battle – 30-1
- 17. Sandman – 6-1
- 18. Sovereignty – 5-1
- 19. Chunk of Gold – 30-1
- 20. Owen Almighty – 30-1
- 21. Baeza – 12-1
Among these, Luxor Cafe and Journalism are the most notable horses to watch, with both having solid connections and pedigree that suggest they could be in the mix at the finish line.
Expert Betting Tips: How to Make Your 2025 Kentucky Derby Picks
With the field set, it’s time to dive into the bets. Michelle Yu, who has accurately predicted multiple Derby winners in the past, is offering her expert picks for this year’s race. While many will flock to the favorites, Yu’s betting strategy leans toward a combination of longshots and favorites with the right pedigree. She also recommends watching how the horses perform on the Churchill Downs surface during race week—this can make a significant difference in their overall performance.
Yu suggests considering horses like Luxor Cafe, who have proven they can handle the pressure of big races, and recommends avoiding horses with less-than-ideal track records in longer races, like Sandman. If you’re looking for a sleeper pick, keep an eye on Flying Mohawk and Final Gambit—they may surprise the field despite their unfamiliarity with dirt tracks.
Yu’s advice is clear: “When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, don’t be afraid to take risks. The race is wide open, and you could see a big payoff with the right longshot.”
The 2025 Kentucky Derby Race Day
The 2025 Kentucky Derby promises to be an unforgettable spectacle, with plenty of surprises in store. From the seasoned favorites to the bold longshots, this race has all the ingredients for drama, excitement, and a few jaw-dropping moments. Be sure to tune in at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday to see who will emerge as the victor in one of the most prestigious horse races in the world.
As always, Michelle Yu’s expert analysis gives bettors a leg up, providing invaluable insights into the horses, post positions, and potential upsets. Whether you’re backing the favorites or taking a chance on a longshot, make sure you’ve got your picks locked in before race day. Who will cross the finish line first? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain—the 2025 Kentucky Derby will be a race to remember.
I am a writer with a passion for technology and gaming. I write about a variety of subjects, including Esports, Games, Shows, and Sports. I create engaging and informative content for Hiptoro.